For three decades, Susan Collins has demonstrated Maine’s tendency to split tickets. She won by 37 points in 2014, 23 in 2008, 17 in 2002, and still by 8.6 in 2020 against Sara Gideon, in the state’s most expensive Senate race, while Maine voted for Joe Biden by 9.¹ ²
However, two recent national polls indicate that this pattern is changing.
CNN/SSRS, August 31–September 6: Jackson 48, Collins 45 among 880 likely voters (±3.7).³
YouGov, September 2–8: Jackson 48, Collins 44 among 1,335 likely voters; Jackson 46, Collins 44 among 1,378 registered voters (±4.9).⁴
Neither poll shows a decisive lead, as both results fall within the margin of error. Taken together, however, they highlight a significant shift. Despite a contentious Democratic nomination process and a late replacement candidate, Troy Jackson remains ahead, and the coalition that previously supported Collins no longer does.
Maine is not a politically balanced, 50–50 state.
Registration still leans Democratic: about 34% Democrat, 30% Republican, 32% unenrolled.⁵ Harris carried Maine 52.4–45.5 in 2024.⁶ Collins is the only Republican senator from a state Donald Trump has never won.⁷
The midterm electorate reflects this political landscape. CNN reports Hannah Pingree leading Bobby Charles 52–39. YouGov shows likely voters favoring Pingree 47, Charles 36, and independent Rick Bennett 2.⁸ These results do not suggest that only Collins is performing well while the rest of the ticket struggles.
Trump in Maine:
CNN/SSRS: 31% approve, 67% disapprove
YouGov: 39% approve, 60% disapprove⁹
Despite different polling methods, the challenge remains the same. A Republican incumbent cannot rely on a president with 31% or 39% approval in a state that recently supported Harris by seven points.
Swing voters have shifted.
Maine elections are decided by unenrolled voters and by women. In 2020, exit polls showed Collins winning women 49–46 and crushing Gideon among men 55–36. Women were 59% of that electorate. Collins survived because the state’s largest group still gave her a plurality.¹⁰
CNN/SSRS now:
Women: Jackson 54, Collins 39
Independents: Jackson 46, Collins 42
Men: Collins 53, Jackson 41¹¹
Jackson leads women by 15 points. Independents, who comprise about one-third of voters and often determine outcomes, also support him.
CNN’s Trump-message question is the tell:
All likely voters: oppose Trump 46%, support Trump 17%
Women: oppose 53%, support 15%
Independents: oppose 44%, support 11%
Jackson voters: oppose 85%¹²
Collins previously positioned herself as a Republican distinct from Trump. Currently, 37 percent of her voters view their Senate vote as a message supporting Trump, while 8 percent see it as a message against him.¹³ She is winning among Trump supporters in Maine, but that group is not large enough to secure victory.
Maine's key demographic groups are not closely divided.
CNN:
Under 45: Jackson 58, Collins 33
College graduates: Jackson 61, Collins 35
White college graduates: Jackson 61, Collins 36
Ages 35–49: Jackson 52, Collins 39¹⁴
YouGov shows similar age trends among likely voters: Jackson leads 51–32 among those aged 18–34 and 49–41 among those 35–49. Collins leads 50–45 among voters aged 50–64 and 46–42 among those 65 and older.¹⁵ Her support is concentrated among older voters, reflecting the 2014 map. However, this is insufficient if younger, college-educated voters participate in large numbers.
The quiet CNN number is seniors: 65-and-over is Jackson 48, Collins 47.¹⁶ When the incumbent is tied with seniors in Maine, the firewall is cracked.
This election is a referendum on both Collins and Trump.
CNN Jackson voters:
71% voting against Collins
29% voting for Jackson
Women backing Jackson: 76% against Collins¹⁷
Collins voters are the mirror: 74% for her, 25% against Jackson.¹⁸
YouGov further indicates that 99 percent of Jackson voters have made up their minds, with only 1 percent open to switching to Collins. Among Collins voters, 95 percent are committed, while 5 percent may consider Jackson.¹⁹ This time, late-deciding voters do not automatically benefit the incumbent.
According to CNN, Jackson remains relatively undefined, with 36 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable, and 22 percent undecided. Collins, by contrast, is well known but faces a 41 percent favorable and 51 percent unfavorable rating.²⁰ Gideon, despite a $70 million campaign, was a familiar candidate who still lost among women voters. Jackson does not need overwhelming popularity if the election centers on opposition to Collins and Trump.
Why this is not 2020
Gideon led in most 2020 polls but ultimately lost by 8.6 points. A lead of three or four points does not guarantee victory.²¹ Two key factors have changed since then.
First, Trump is currently president. According to CNN, 46 percent of voters say their Senate vote is a message against him. Collins voters approve of Trump by 66–30, while Jackson voters disapprove by 99–1.²² YouGov reports Trump’s approval at 39–60. Previously, Collins benefited from Mainers who disliked Trump but supported her; that group has diminished.
Second, the Dobbs decision occurred after 2020. CNN finds that nearly two-thirds of Maine voters view the 2022 ruling negatively, with about half reporting anger over the decision. Most of these voters support Jackson.²³
Third, this trend isn't limited to a single poll. Since Jackson became the nominee, multiple polls show him leading: UNH 49–46, Fox 48–46, Hart 49–45, CNN 48–45, and YouGov 48–44 among likely voters. Aggregators as of September 10 show Jackson ahead by two to three points.²⁴ Despite Platner’s withdrawal, the race has not shifted back to Collins.
The honest limit
YouGov’s four-point lead for Jackson is within the 4.9-point margin of error. According to CNN, Collins still leads among men, non-college voters, and Republicans. Jackson’s favorability remains negative. A late campaign shift or lower turnout among college-educated women could still benefit Collins, as she has overcome similar challenges previously.
However, two polls now show consistent trends. Maine’s largest registered group is Democratic. In CNN’s poll, unenrolled voters and women favor Jackson by significant margins, including a 15-point lead among women. Younger voters also strongly support Jackson in both surveys. The governor’s race is similarly favorable for Democrats. Trump’s approval is at 31 or 39 percent. CNN finds the Senate vote is a 46–17 anti-Trump message, and YouGov reports Jackson’s voters are firmly committed.
No previous Collins challenger has benefited from this combination of factors. Gideon had financial resources and favorable polls but did not face Trump as president with low approval, the Dobbs decision, a 15-point lead among women, support from independents, a tie among seniors, and confirmation from multiple national polls.
Jackson now holds these advantages, placing him in a stronger position. While this does not guarantee victory, the race dynamics have fundamentally changed.
Notes
Dave Leip’s Atlas, 2020 Maine U.S. Senate: Collins 50.98%, Gideon 42.39%.
Washington Post, 2020 Maine: Biden 53.1%, Trump 44.0%. Politico seat history: 2002 R+17, 2008 R+23, 2014 R+37.
CNN/SSRS, Aug. 31–Sept. 6, 2026; CNN Politics, Sept. 9, 2026; DocumentCloud crosstabs.
YouGov, Sept. 2–8, 2026, 1,335 LV / 1,378 RV, ±4.9. Political Wire; Wikipedia polling table; YouGov PDF ttw_me_20260902.pdf.
Independent Voter Project, 2026 Maine registration: D 33.7%, R 29.7%, unenrolled 32.3%.
Official 2024 Maine presidential: Harris 52.4%, Trump 45.5%.
Collins is the only Republican senator from a state Trump has not won in three presidential races.
CNN/SSRS governor: Pingree 52%, Charles 39%. YouGov LV: Pingree 47%, Charles 36%, Bennett 2%.
CNN/SSRS Table A1; YouGov Q4 (20% strongly + 19% somewhat approve; 57% strongly + 3% somewhat disapprove).
NBC News 2020 Maine Senate exit polls.
CNN/SSRS Table SENVOTEME.
CNN/SSRS Table TRUMPVOTE.
Ibid., Collins-voter column.
CNN/SSRS Table SENVOTEME.
YouGov age stubs, likely voters.
CNN/SSRS, 65+: Jackson 48%, Collins 47%.
CNN/SSRS Table FORCANDMED.
CNN/SSRS Table FORCANDMER.
YouGov firmness questions, Sept. 10, 2026 reporting.
CNN/SSRS favorability tables.
RealClearPolitics 2020 Maine Senate polling vs. final.
CNN/SSRS Tables A1 and TRUMPVOTE.
CNN Politics write-up of the SSRS poll, Sept. 9, 2026.
UNH July; Fox August; Hart August; CNN/SSRS September; YouGov September. 270toWin / RCP / FiftyPlusOne averages as of Sept. 10, 2026.